Preface: The author of Logical Science does realize that there are credible experts on both sides of the peak oil debate.  Since credible experts do exist there isn't a strong consensus.  Current studies put the peak range from now to 2025.   CERA is one of the major organisations projecting plenty of oil.  However,  they are charging $1,000 for a copy of their report and so it's a little hard to analyze their data.  Some people have accused them of being a "hired gun" for vested interests like Exxon and Saudi Arabia.  There are more than enough experts on the peak side to warrant special attention.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Internation Energy Agency (IEA) have conflicting data.    If we run out of clean fuels like sweet crude and natural gas we will likely be forced to use very dirty fuels.  This could have significant health, economic, and environmental impacts.  There are a wide variety of opinions as to when the oil supply will plateau.  PBS says mainstream  forcasters predict 2020-2030.  Then again PBS considers Exxon a mainstream forcaster.  Exxon has a long history of muddling science 1, 2.  They have push boundaries so out of line with mainstream science that the Royal Soceity has made an unprecedented stepin asking them to stop.  On the flip side Robert Rapier is more concerned with what he calls "Peak Lite" which is demand outstripping supply.  This could very easily happen long before the actual "peak" hits.  As you can see from the quotes below there are many people that think the plateau is much sooner than later.  Logicalscience has no opinion as to who holds the most reliable projections.


Robert Rapier - Big Oil

"I believe that oil production will peak in a few short years, and it will have very serious ramifications for society.  ..... The fact that this threat is not being taking serious enough frightens me, and that is why I take this debate very seriously."
Postscript with Wang and Khosla
Robert Rapier is a chemical engineer that testified for Conoco-Philips at the Montana House of Representatives on March 22, 2005

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers / Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC)

"The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close.....We must act now to develop the technology and infrastructure necessary to transition to other energy sources. Policy changes, leap ahead technology breakthroughs, cultural changes, and significant investment is requisite for this new energy future. Time is essential to enact these changes. The process should begin now."
Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations (PDF – 1.2mb) Backup Link , Energybulletin's Summary

"Oil wars are certainly not out of the question," says the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.- The Vancouver Sun: Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn

ARCO / BP - Big Oil

"We've embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil. Embrace the future and recognize the growing demand for a wide range of fuels or ignore reality and slowly—but surely—be left behind." -Mike Bowlin, chairman and CEO of ARCO (now BP), speech in Houston, 9 Feb 1999

Chevron - Big Oil & Gas

"Energy will be one of the defining issues of this century, and one thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over. ....  We need your help. At Chevron, we believe that innovation, collaboration and conservation are the cornerstones on which to build this new world. But we can’t do it alone. Corporations, governments and every citizen of this planet must be part of the solution as surely as they are part of the problem. And so, we ask you to join us."
http://www.willyoujoinus.com/vision/


Chevron

"oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries"  [25]

Professor Holdren, Harvard Professor, President of AAAS, director of WHRC

"We are not starting to address climate change with the technology we have in hand, and we are not accelerating our investment in energy technology research and development,"
BBC - Top scientist's fears for climate

Dominion - Electric & Gas

The president and chief executive officer of one of the nation's largest energy companies warned that the United States is heading toward "an energy train wreck" unless it immediately begins work on projects that will take years to finance and complete....."As anyone who suffered through Economics 101 can tell you, bad things -- such as shortages and high prices -- happen when demand outstrips supply," Farrell said. "That is precisely what is happening now in the nation's energy markets as homes, factories and businesses crave more electricity, gas and oil."   The nation's policymakers and politicians have not led the nation toward a comprehensive energy policy and the public has not been given enough incentive to conserve or care about the energy they use, Farrell said. -Executive warns of energy disaster

CIBC World Markets' chief economist Jeffrey Rubin

'has been portraying peak oil as a foregone conclusion for a couple of years in the company's provocative Occasional Report series.' - The Vancouver Sun: Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn

University of British Columbia civil engineering associate professor Robert Millar

'the peak is here now'..."Global production has been flat now for a year and a half or more, and demand continues to climb with world economic growth. We are seeing the consequence of that with higher prices," - The Vancouver Sun: Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn

Lieutenant Colonel John M. Amidon, United States Air Force (USAF)

"Dependence on imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, has become the elephant in the foreign policy living room, an overriding strategic consideration composed of a multitude of issues. .... Taken in whole, the National Energy Policy does not offer a compelling solution to the growing danger of foreign oil dependence.  ...  Future military efforts to secure the oil supply pose tremendous challenges due to the number of potential crisis areas.  .....  Economic stagnation or catastrophe lurk close at hand, to be triggered by another embargo, collapse of the Saudi monarchy, or civil disorder in any of a dozen nations."-  America’s Strategic Imperative A “Manhattan Project” for Energy

United States Air Force (USAF) - Tech. Sgt. Russell Wicke, Air Combat Command Public Affairs

"The Air Force paid approximately $4.2 billion for petroleum in fiscal 2005 - almost $1.4 billion more than fiscal 2004, according to the 28th edition of the Defense Energy Support Center Fact Book  .......Now, with a 31 percent increase in fuel cost since that time and a budget that continues to shrink, the Air Force and ACC are required to make significant changes - just to operate. " - Rising fuel costs tighten AF belt

Former Governor-General, Economist, and Manitoba premier Edward Schreyer

"What we are witnessing now is that virtually three-quarters of the important oil producing countries of the world are now past their peak. There is no argument about it whatsoever." - The Vancouver Sun: Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn

NASA's James Hansen

"Summary: Is There Still Time?
Yes, But:
- Alternative Scenario is Feasible, But It Is Not Being Pursued
-Action needed now; a decade of business as usual eliminates Alternative Scenario"
Is There Still Time to Avoid ‘Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with Global Climate?

NET (National Environmental Trust)
"Essentially, the Bush [Climate Change Technology Program] began to count as climate R&D nuclear energy, fusion energy, fossil energy and other programs that were previously uncounted under President Clinton's climate budget."
The Bush Administration Climate Budget — Cooking the Books while Cooking the Planet


"Within the [Climate Change Technology Program], energy conservation faces a $21 million cut, and renewables a $27 million cut. Only nuclear, fossil fuel, and hydrogen programs see increased spending in FY06."
The Bush Administration Climate Budget — Cooking the Books while Cooking the Planet


Robert Anderson - Kansas CIty Star
"We’ve all heard the term “peak oil” but “net exports” are an even graver oil market fundamental. Current statistics (not projections) indicate global oil exports are falling three to four times faster than oil production, which is down 1.3 percent since the start of the year." - AS I SEE IT: United States faces bigger worries than ‘hot’ fuel


Ulf Bossel - European Fuel Cell Forum 

"Without the slightest doubt, the technology for a hydrogen economy exists or can be developed in reasonable time. Also, hydrogen is an appropriate energy carrier for particular niche applications, or it may become an important medium for electricity storage with reversible fuel cells. But hydrogen can never establish itself as a dominant energy carrier. It has to be fabricated from high grade energy and it has to compete with high grade energy in the market place. Hydrogen cannot win this fight against its own energy source. Physics is eternal and cannot be changed by man. Therefore, a "Hydrogen Economy" has no past, no present and no future. The road to sustainability leads to an "Electron Economy". "
http://www.efcf.com/reports/E15.pdf

Stephen L. Sass - professor of materials science and engineering at Cornell University

If there is anything to be learned from history, it's that we need to face the harsh reality of fossil fuel scarcity and begin something like a Manhattan project to develop clean, economical and preferably sustainable new sources of energy.  - Peak oil - Aug 12 & Scarcity, mother of invention: Stephen L. Sass, NY Times

Exxon

"We're an oil and gas company. In times past, when we tried to get into other businesses, we didn't do it well. We'd rather re-invest in what we know," says Exxon spokesman Dave Gardner.- USATODAY, Alternate energy not in cards at ExxonMobil

Shell

"While major new finds cannot be ruled out, recent statistics do provide worrisome signals... Discoveries only replaced some 45% of production since 1999. In addition, the number of discoveries is increasing but discoveries are getting smeller in size. The 25 biggest fields hold some 33% of discovered reserves and the top 100 fields 53%; al but two of the giant fields were discovered before 1970."  -USGS WPA 2000 part 1 - A look at expected oil discoveries


ASPO

"In 2002, Harry Longwell, a senior executive with ExxonMobil, published to his great credit a key graph showing how discovery has been in relentless decline for forty years, which is the basis of the Growing Gap illustration on page one of this newsletter. This alone points to an imminent corresponding peak in production. With this background, it is at first sight curious to find ExxonMobil stating in a major advertisement in the Washington Post, that Contrary to the theory, oil production shows no sign of a peak." - NEWSLETTER No. 64 – APRIL 2006

Spiegel

"Hubbert claimed that the exploitation of oil resources always follows the pattern of a bell curve: first it rises, then it flattens out, and finally it declines -- irreversibly. According to his calculations, the United States would soon reach the peak of the curve -- around about 1970, according to his estimate.  His prediction could hardly have been more accurate: In fact, it was in 1971 that the US's oil extraction reached its maximum level. Ever since then, oil production in the US has declined." -The End of the Oil Era Looms

David Rothkopf

"We used to say the system is broken because it won't respond until there is a crisis," said David Rothkopf, author of "Running the World," a history of U.S. foreign policy. But now it's really broken, "because the system can't even respond to a crisis!" -
NYT's: Let's (Third) Party


Peter Gerling, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) - Germany 

"The Earth has been explored in detail," he says, adding that the layer of the planet's crust that contains its roughly 600 petroleum sediments is known in some detail: "There won't be any major surprises." (i.e major oil discoveries) - The End of the Oil Era Looms

"Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) wants to create a new federal agency to promote innovation in the development of alternative energy."

"We have entered the post-oil era. I want to draw all the consequences of  this and give a real impulse to energy savings and to the use of renewable energies."
Dominque de Villepin, French Prime Minister
France promises aid to households over oil price - Reuters, 1 September 2005

Tony Blair

"In the future, energy security will be almost as important as defence"
Tony Blair, British Prime Minister Blair: Energy as important as defence Independent, 17 October 2006

Sir David Manning, British Ambassador To The United States Of America

Sir David Manning, British Ambassador To The United States Of America - Speech at Standford University, 13 March 2006

"We almost certainly are at or near what they call peak oil..."
Al Gore, former US Vice President - CNN, 14 June 2006

"Former U.S. president Bill Clinton has urged newspaper editors to focus more attention on the depletion of the world’s oil reserves. In a June 17 speech to the Association of Alternative Newsweeklies convention in Little Rock, Arkansas, Clinton said a 'significant number of petroleum geologists' have warned that the world could be nearing the peak in oil production." - Clinton raises alarm about oil depletion  Georgia Straight (Canada), 22 June 2006

"... the supply-demand fundamentals seem consistent with the view now taken by market participants that the days of persistently cheap oil and natural gas are likely behind us." Ben Bernake, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve -Economic Club of Chicago, 15 June 2006

"The world lacks the means to produce enough oil to meet rising projections of demand for fuel over the next decade, according to Christophe de Margerie, head of exploration for Total and heir presumptive to the leadership of the French energy multinational. The world is mistakenly focusing on oil reserves when the problem is capacity to produce oil, M de Margerie said in an interview with The Times. Forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), have failed to consider the speed at which new resources can be brought into production, he believes. 'Numbers like 120 million barrels per day will never be reached, never,' he said."- World 'cannot meet oil demand - 'London Times, 8 April 2006

Apollo Alliance

"A crash program for sustainable energy independence would create three million good jobs, free the nation from imported oil, and promote a healthier environment. States and cities are leading the way toward a clean energy future. Now, the time has come for our nation to take up the challenge." - http://www.apolloalliance.org/

A list of articles calling for an Apollo program

http://www.apolloalliance.org/apollo_in_the_news/2005.cfm

Guy McPherson - University of Arizon, Professor of Natural Resources

The oil industry peaked last year, and half of the oil in the world has been used up, said Guy McPherson, a professor of natural resources and ecology and evolutionary biology."If global warming is a three on a scale of one to 10, then peak oil is a 12," McPherson said. - UA eyes greener campu

Rocky Mountain Institute

Rocky Mountain Institute's position is that, far from being costly, protecting the climate is actually good for the economy. Greenhouse-gas emissions are simply the byproduct of the uneconomically wasteful use of resources. The obvious solution, then, is increased efficiency. Being more efficient not only reduces emissions, it also saves money and increases economic competitiveness. In fact, it doesn't even matter whether global warming is happening or not, because the most effective climate-protection measures are things we should be doing for economic reasons anyhow.  RMI.org



EIA insisting on plateau - Stuart Staniford, PhD Physics, MS CS. 10 years as an innovator in computer security (especially worms). Patents, research papers with 100+ citations, major media coverage. Ran a company for 5 years. Now working as a consulting scientist and researching peak oil.




U.S. Rep. Tom Udall

.S. Rep. Tom Udall and others in Congress have positioned themselves at the center of an uncomfortable idea: Eventually the planet will run out of fossil fuels. Udall is pushing for open discussion of peak oil, the concept that world-oil production will someday reach an all-time high. ..... “I agree that this is one of the biggest challenges that we face,” said Udall, a Democrat who represents Northern New Mexico. “I believe it’s going to be a hard road, and we should tell the truth to the American people about the difficult road we will be on.”- Debate swirls around fossil fuel’s demise

U.S. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett

about 60 percent of what Americans burn in gas tanks every day — is “a totally unacceptable national security concern.”  “We have not been honest with the American people,” Bartlett said. “... Prices are up because you and me and nearly 7 billion other people are using more oil than is readily available, and that drives the prices up. It’s supply and demand. It’s very simple.” ..... “I’ve seen only tepid lip service coming out of Washington for alternatives,” Bartlett said. ... “”I think there’s a tremendous opportunity to harness the creativity and the commitment of the American people,” he said. “... We may have an energy shortage, but I think there’s a bigger shortage of responsible leadership.”- Debate swirls around fossil fuel’s demise

Jimmy Carter

Ours is the most wasteful nation on Earth. We waste more energy than we import. With about the same standard of living, we use twice as much energy per person as do other countries like Germany, Japan, and Sweden. -Jimmy Carter, 39th President of the United States, Address to the Nation, 18 April 1977


George W. Bush

We can't conserve our way to energy independence, nor can we conserve our way to having enough energy available. So we've got to do both.  -George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States, quoted in "Bush Launches Effort to Sell Energy Policy Overhaul,"The Washington Post, 4 May 2001  

Sen. Charles Schumer

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) wants to create a new federal agency to promote innovation in the development of alternative energy. - The Business Reveiw: Schumer wants 'Manhattan Project' for energy innovation


http://www.stthomas.edu/recycle/energy.htm
http://www.gii-exchange.org/guide/energy/repquotes.shtml
http://www.people4peace.net/quotes/energy-quotes.htm







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